Summary:
West Michigan will see yet another above-average chance for heavy rainfall and scattered flooding and flash flooding and at least some chance for an isolated strong to severe storm on Monday.
Severe Weather Threat:
What initially appeared like a more substantial severe weather threat compared to the chances we saw this past week is now looking more like a prolific heavy rainfall event. This is largely due to in a change to the forecasted arrival time of thunderstorms (now forecasted to arrive after midnight as compared to the late afternoon and early evening.)
That said, the threat for severe weather is non-zero, especially along and South of the I-94 corridor where storms may be able to take advantage of a modestly unstable environment and at least some supportive wind shear. The Storm Prediction Center has a Level 1/5 "Marginal Risk" in place across areas South of a Muskegon to Lansing line to account for this non-zero threat.
Any storms that do become strong to severe will be capable of damaging winds of 40-60 MPH and some small to large hail up to 1 inch in diameter (quarter size). Thankfully, the overall threat for tornadoes is less than 2% in all areas so we don't have any tornado concerns at this point.
Heavy Rain/Flooding Threat:
As aforementioned, this event now looks more supportive of heavy rainfall and flooding as compared to severe weather.
Training of thunderstorms combined with overall slow storm motion and high PWAT (Precipitable Water - the total amount of water content in the atmosphere above a given point) values from 1.50 to 2 inches. This above-average water content, combined with high dew points, will support area rainfall totals of up to 2 inches. Not everywhere will see rain, however.
The best chances for heavy rain and flooding currently looks to be along and North of the I-96 corridor and West of the I-75 corridor where the Weather Prediction Center has outlined a Level 2/4 "Slight Risk" for overnight Monday into Tuesday.
Locations that do see rainfall will need to be prepared for the potential for isolated to scattered flooding/flash flooding, especially in flood-prone areas, low-lying areas, and in areas that have already experienced recent heavy rain and flooding.
After day-break on Tuesday, the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding should slowly shift off to the Southeast before clearing our coverage area entirely by late Tuesday afternoon.
Comments