Day 1 School Closing Outlook
Valid: Thursday, December 12, 2024
Issued: Wednesday, December 11, 2024 3:12 PM
Summary: At least scattered school closures are expected Thursday, especially West of US-131 North of I-96 as the ongoing winter storm brings strong winds, frigid temperatures, sub-zero wind chills, and additional heavy lake-effect snow showers.
Discussion:
A complex winter storm with a fair amount of forecast uncertainty will continue through the evening and overnight hours intensifying shortly after the evening commute wraps up today as a band of convective snow showers with the potential for rapidly accumulating snow, strong winds, and a couple of lightning strikes.
After this initial round of convective snow moves through we'll see arctic air move in and that will cause that lake-effect snow showers to ramp back up as the cold air interacts with the warm lake waters. The problem is that substantial uncertainty surrounding the placement and intensity of these snow showers is still apparent is precluding our confidence in adding higher risk probabilities despite the short-term nature of this forecast. Lake-effect snow is difficult to forecast and the timing of the bulk of the snowfall, falling this evening and during the day tomorrow, rather than overnight tonight, is making a snow-day prediction all the more difficult, but we do believe that at least scattered snow days as a result of potentially significant snowfall accumulations and sub-zero wind chills are possible, if not probable for Thursday.
Snowfall amounts will vary greatly. Areas that see the most significant snow bands for the most prolonged amount of time will obviously be the most likely to experience snow days. For the most part, these areas will be focused along I-94 near US-131, between I-94 and I-96 West of I-69 and East of US-131, and West of US-131 North of I-96. Elsewhere, snow days are less anticipated due to the lack of substantial overnight snowfall.
Comentarios