School Closing Outlook For Thursday 12/11/2025
- Jonah Drake (Owner & Co-Founder)
- Dec 10, 2025
- 2 min read
Updated: Dec 11, 2025
Day 1 School Closing Outlook Results:
Forecast Results Issued: Wednesday, December 10, 2025, 9:35 AM EST
We had a few sporadic clusters of closings and delays on Thursday: 1 in Berrien County, 1 in Eaton and Clinton Counties, and 1 along US-127 in Isabella and Gratiot Counties.
Realistically, each of these clusters could have verified as "Limited" risk areas, but as mentioned in our forecast discussion last night, confidence was just too low to delineate specific areas where these clusters of closings or delays would occur, so we were forced to maintain our "Minuscule" probabilities across the board.
Closings and delays were limited to our rural areas, as expected.
Day 1 School Closing Outlook
Forecast Valid: Thursday, December 11, 2025
Forecast Issued: Wednesday, December 10, 2025, 3:32 PM EST Forecast Update Issued: Wednesday, December 10, 2025, 6:31 PM EST
Forecasters: Jonah Drake and Jacob Melton
Summary:
There is a “Minuscule” risk of school closures or delays on Thursday. Lingering effects of Wednesday’s snowfall and refreezing snow melt may result in a couple of school closings or delays on Thursday.
Day 1 Update:
Issued: Wednesday, December 10, 2025, 6:31 PM EST
Forecasters: Jonah Drake
Road conditions, especially secondary roadways, continue to be marginally hazardous as a result of additional light snow showers, blowing and drifting snow, and refreezing stagnant water.
A good deal of consideration was given to an upgrade to "Limited" with this update, but overall confidence in the geographic placement of any such zones remains too low to delineate.
The possibility of a couple of sporadic school closures or delays continues. See previous discussion for details.
Previous Discussion: Forecast Issued: Wednesday, December 10, 2025, 3:32 PM EST
Forecasters: Jonah Drake and Jacob Melton
While very little additional snow accumulation is expected after today’s widespread snow event, that somewhat unexpectedly resulted in hundreds of school closings this morning, some lingering snow pack on secondary roadways and in rural areas could result in an isolated closing or 2 on Thursday morning.
Two other concerns of note, first, along the lakeshore in Southern Allegan County, Central Van Buren County, and Northern Berrien County, and then again in parts of Mason, Lake, and Oceana Counties, we may see 1 or 2 “northwest-flow lake-effect snow bands set up and produce 1-3 inches of additional snowfall, which might further complicate things in those areas.
Finally, the other notable concern is that we have some stagnant snow melt and rainwater remaining on some roadways across the area, thanks to temperatures hovering around or slightly above freezing this afternoon. As temperatures plunge into the teens and low-mid 20s tonight, this water will likely refreeze and create areas of ice and black ice on roadways, which could also result in a couple of sporadic closures or delays Thursday morning, even in our less rural areas.
While we certainly recognize that school closings could be slightly more numerous than this outlook indicates, the lack of confidence in the ability to accurately forecast exactly where those more numerous closings might occur generally precludes the delineation of higher-risk areas. When this outlook is released at 7:00 PM for everyone, we may need to upgrade parts of the area if confidence has increased, so stay tuned.
Graphical Forecast:
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