School Closing Outlooks For Thursday 01/15/2026 & Friday 01/16/2026
- Jonah Drake (Owner & Co-Founder)
- 6 days ago
- 5 min read
Updated: 5 days ago
Day 1 School Closing Outlook Results www.WestMichiganWeather.net/closings
Forecast Results Issued: Thursday, January 15, 2026, 8:39 AM EST
Very good forecast verification for our School Closing Outlook, especially within the "Extreme" risk area and its gradient of risks with northern/eastern extent. Every school is closed within our "Extreme" risk area, with a few closings dotted around the remainder of that southwest risk area. We also saw a few closings centered around the "Elevated" risk area in our northwest zones, with Ludington, Hart, Shelby, and Baldwin Schools all closing today. There was 1 other cluster of closings and delays centered around Jackson County in our "Minuscule" risk area due to cold wind chills this morning. While we are surprised by the number of closings and delays, we did note that this was a distinct possibility in our 8:00 PM update last night.
Overall, the theme for this forecast is that it verified extremely well! Make sure you're following us to catch all of our future forecasts!
Day 1 School Closing Outlook - Update
Forecast Update Issued: Wednesday, January 14, 2026, 8:21 PM EST
18z (1:00 PM) and 00z (7:00 PM) runs of our computer weather models continue to show some consistent risk for cold wind chills as low as -15°F across the eastern half of our area, and this supports the introduction of a "Minuscule" risk delineation for this region along and east of the I-69/M-66 corridors.
Schools do not normally close until temperatures or wind chills reach at least -20°F, but we can't entirely rule out an isolated delayed start or closing or two, especially in districts that may have a lack of sufficient HVAC systems available.
The remainder of our previous forecast remains on track with scattered closings already announced for the northwest risk area (Mason, Lake, Muskegon, Newaygo, and Oceana Counties) and school closings starting to filter in for our southwest risk area (Van Buren, Berrien, and Cass Counties). See previous discussion below for additional details.
Day 1 School Closing Outlook
Forecast Valid: Thursday, January 15, 2026
Forecast Issued: Wednesday, January 14, 2026, 3:32 PM EST
Forecasters: Jonah Drake
Summary:
There is an “Extreme” risk of school closings on Thursday across parts of far Southwestern Michigan, and there is an “Elevated” risk of closings across parts of our northwestern zones. Significant lake-effect snow is expected.
Discussion:
We still have 2 distinct risk areas in place. The first is along and northwest of a line extending from near Grand Haven to near Reed City. Within this area, additional snowfall accumulations will range from 2-5 inches with locally higher amounts possible.
Guidance throughout the day has consistently shown an increasing chance for lake-effect snow to move almost entirely offshore, which will likely limit snowfall totals, especially further inland. However, while confidence is low, we must consider the chance of these snow bands remaining on shore. This would likely push event totals for this event upwards of 5-8 inches, which could certainly result in some closings in this area, but they will likely be more scattered in nature.
Regardless of the eventual final setup of the lake-effect snow bands, some snow is expected between now and 6:00 AM or so tomorrow morning, with the best chance of impactful, albeit minor, snowfall along and West of US-31. Additionally, areas along the immediate lakeshore within this area have been experiencing gusty winds today, and that has resulted in a few sporadic power outages, which could also lead some schools to be closed on Thursday.
The second risk area extends south and west of a Holland to Cassopolis line and is the more favored zone for snow day potential, with our first “Extreme” risk of the 2025-2026 academic year now being delineated for much of Berrien County.
This risk is in place due to the threat of a persistent and significant lake-effect snow band that has been consistently forecasted to set up somewhere in Berrien County this afternoon and persist through the evening. Snow to liquid ratios with this band will be between 15:1 and 30:1, which will likely support very intense snowfall rates of 1-2 inches/hour over the area in which this band sets up.
Wherever this band setsup, final snowfall totals will likely exceed 12-15 inches, with amounts near 2 feet a very real possibility. Just like our northern zone, there is a chance that this band moves offshore entirely and cuts down on snowfall totals, but confidence in this particular band staying onshore is higher, which allows us to comfortably delineate this small maximum risk zone for Berrien County.
Again, as mentioned in our recent social media updates, this band will be hyper-localized, meaning that we cannot stress enough how localized these high totals will be. 1 house or business may see over a foot of snow, while a second house or business just a mile or 2 down the road could see only an inch or so of snow.
These hyper-localized lake-effect snow bands are one of, if not the single hardest thing to forecast for in the world of meteorology, and we need everyone to understand that the highest totals shown on the snowfall forecast map will likely be few and far between.
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