School Delay Prediction For Thursday 09/25/2025
- Jonah Drake (Owner & Co-Founder)
- Sep 24
- 2 min read
Updated: Oct 2
Day 1 School Delay Prediction Results
Forecast Valid: Thursday, September 25, 2025
Forecast Issued: Wednesday, September 24, 2025, 7:38 PM EDT
Forecast Results Published: Friday, September 26, 2025, 6:11 PM EDT
Light winds and high cumulus clouds prevented radiation cooling and limited fog density on Wednesday night into Thursday, and fog formed slightly after the peak morning school commute, so there were no school delays on Thursday morning.
We must continue to note in these fog forecast results: Fog is difficult to forecast, and despite our best efforts, it is important to remember that said scale does max out at 40% for a reason, and that we really reserve those still low 40% chances for events with much higher forecast confidence and that is because of those little variables that can drastically change the result of a fog forecast. So, when we use a 10% delination, it really is showing that the overall chances for delays, despite how high our confidence in that 10%, is still just that... 10%, which is a very low probability.
Day 1 School Delay Prediction
Valid: Thursday, September 25, 2025
Issued: Wednesday, September 24, 2025, 7:38 PM EDT
Forecast Graphic: Jonah Drake
Forecast Discussion: Jonah Drake
Summary: Very similar to last night, widespread areas of fog are expected to develop overnight tonight into Thursday morning. Isolated to scattered areas of dense fog are possible.
Discussion: Conditions this evening, given recent rainfall and high dewpoints, will support the development of fairly widespread fog with visibility reductions that will likely be comparable to this morning's areas of poor visibility.
Yesterday's outlook only featured a broad >10% risk of delay delineation, and tonight's outlook is very similar, with one notable exception. We have slightly increased confidence is seeing school delays that are more widely scattered to scattered in nature as compared to isolated in nature across parts of the greater Kalamazoo/Three Rivers area along the US-131 corridor, South of I-94.
This increased confidence in seeing more dense fog in these areas, and hence a slightly higher likelihood of delays, allows us to introduce a small >40% risk area in that region.
Elsewhere, we still expect areas of fog, and perhaps even patchy areas of dense fog, but confidence in the exact placement, timing, longevity, and severity of this fog is either too low to warrant the inclusion of a risk area all together, or precludes the introduction of a >40% risk area, leaving us to highlight a broad corridor of >10% probablitlites across much of our eastern coverage area.
Graphical Forecast:
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