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Several Rounds of Locally Heavy Rain & Strong Storms Possible Today

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Summary:

Multiple rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms will move through lower Michigan today as a low-pressure system slides through the Great Lakes region. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be the primary concern today as we expect the same areas to see up to 4 or 5 rounds of rain and storms through the day. Aside from the heavy rainfall risk, there are also low-end chances for some stronger, to perhaps marginally severe, thunderstorms to occur this afternoon.


Heavy Rainfall & Localized Flash Flooding:


The Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Outlook denotes a near area-wide Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for rainfall amounts and/or rates to exceed flash flood warning guidance criteria.


As aforementioned, the primary concern for today that will be an area-wide threat will be the risk for locally heavy rainfall, isolated flash flooding, and "training" of showers and thunderstorms.


"Training" is a term we use to describe several cells, lines, or clusters of showers and storms repeatedly moving over the same areas. The problem this causes most often is that the natural ability for rainwater to be absorbed by the environment is negated by the sheer volume of water. This can lead to localized flash flooding.


Remember; never drive through flooded roadways! #TurnAroundDon'tDrown!


Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Possible:



Strong to low-end severe thunderstorms are also possible with any storms that occur near or after the noon hour today along and east of the US-131 corridor, and especially along and southeast of the I-69 corridor where the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1/5).


Severe weather intensity and coverage will be largely dependent on how the showers and storms from this morning impact the environment and how well the environment is able to recover from this morning's convection.


Any stronger storms that do develop will primarily pose a risk for damaging wind gusts of 40 to 60 MPH and perhaps some small to large hail. The tornado risk today is largely negligible across the area at less than 2%.


Not everyone will see stronger storms today and they will likely be rather brief threats over a localized area so it will be important to remain #WeatherAware today!

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