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Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall Possible In West Michigan Tomorrow

Summary:

West Michigan Weather forecasters are tracking the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall/flash flooding tomorrow afternoon and into the overnight hours.


Severe Weather Threat:


Two different areas or rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow. The first, associated with a warm front, will move through the northern parts of West Michigan tomorrow morning. While chances for severe weather with this round will be non-zero, our primary risk for strong to severe storms will be in the afternoon/evening hours into the overnight.


In the afternoon additional showers and thunderstorms will develop along a new cold front moving into the area. These storms will have the potential to grow upscale and reach strong to severe criteria posing the risk for damaging winds as the primary threat (5-15%) and a very low risk for tornadoes (2-5%). The risk for large hail appears negligible (less than 5%).


CAPE - (storm energy juice) - will be a potentially limiting factor with this setup and will need to be monitored for the potential to prevent storms from becoming strong to severe.


Heavy Rainfall & Flash Flooding Threat:


Flash flooding and excessive rainfall will be possible area-wide tomorrow with the WPC outlining an area of flash flooding risk greater than 15%.


The extreme moisture in the area will fuel the heavy rainfall with precipitable water values between 2 and 3 inches.

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