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Severe Weather Outlook for West Michigan. Low Risk For Tuesday, Wednesday.

Summary:

While severe weather chances for the West Michigan area appear low over the next couple of days, we do need to highlight that the NWS Storm Prediction Center has placed some areas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for both tomorrow (Tuesday) and Wednesday.


Tuesday 04/16/2024:

NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Categorical Severe Weather Outlook (Enhanced Risk - 3/5) [Issued: 2:00 AM/06Z]. Highlights Berrien County and the southwestern half of Cass County as being placed under a Marginal (Level 1/5) risk for severe weather on Tuesday. Main timing will be from 4pm to midnight.
NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Categorical Severe Weather Outlook (Enhanced Risk - 3/5) [Issued: 2:00 AM/06Z]

As aforementioned, the SPC has placed Berrien County and the southwestern half of Cass County under a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for Severe Weather on Tuesday.


This risk is in place as some computer weather model guidance indicates the potential for an isolated severe wind gust to around 60 MPH and/or isolated large hail up to 1 inch in diameter to occur within the Marginal Risk delineation.


The most likely timing for strong to severe storms on Tuesday will be from 4:00 PM through Midnight.


Wednesday 04/17/2024:

NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3 Categorical Severe Weather Outlook (Slight Risk - 2/5) [Issued: 3:30 AM/07:30Z]. Highlights areas along and south of the I-96 corridor in the Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for severe weather on Wednesday.
NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3 Categorical Severe Weather Outlook (Slight Risk - 2/5) [Issued: 3:30 AM/07:30Z]

A much larger area of low-end severe weather risk is in place for Wednesday. The SPC has placed areas along and south of the I-96 corridor under a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for severe weather.


Contrary to Tuesday's severe weather risk driven by the potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail, the threat on Wednesday will be what is known as an "All-Hazards" risk with at least some threat for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes.


It's too early at this stage to be really diving into the specifics of timing and the individual probabilities of each hazard type in specific areas of the risk but as we discuss below, we do expect the risks to change and as the Wednesday threat draws nearer we'll be able to discuss those things further.


Conclusion:

A Marginal Risk is in place for portions of southwestern lower Michigan on Tuesday and Wednesday.


Marginal Risk breakdown. Additional information available at https://youtu.be/ufMWCwMLCS0?si=T2sGbT77lc4udr8o

We do expect that these risks will evolve/change a bit as the events draw closer. Michiganders in the risk areas should stay tuned to West Michigan Weather on our website and on social media for the latest severe weather threat information.



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