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Severe Weather Risk Expanded For Thursday. Low-end "All-Hazards" Risk In Place


Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for all areas of southwest and southern lower Michigan along and south of the I-96 corridor.
NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Categorical Severe Weather Outlook (Marginal Risk - 1/5) [2:00 AM/06z]

As we anticipated, the initial Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook from the NWS Storm Prediction Center has indeed expanded the severe weather threat eastward to encompass more of southern lower Michigan. Somewhat unexpectedly, the risk has also been expanded north somewhat to encompass areas along and south of the I-96 corridor as well.


Hence, a low-end "all-hazards" risk is in place for all of southern and southwestern lower Michigan on Thursday.


Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the area this Wednesday night and will move eastward across the region as a warm front pushes through. This warm front will be a key player in the forecast for Thursday and will need to be closely watched.


Substantial uncertainty regarding the placement of the aforementioned warm front is leading to pretty significant forecasting challenges when looking at the severe weather threat and the timing of said threat.


Current computer weather model guidance suggests this front will make it just north of the I-94 corridor, but it is possible that the front lags and does not push so far north. That eventuality, should it come to fruition, would likely entirely prevent a severe threat from materializing.


If however, the warm front does succeed in pushing north of the I-94 corridor, as current weather model data suggests, some low-end severe threat will likely exist as far north as the I-96 corridor beginning in the late morning through the afternoon hours.


Primary hazards associated with this system will be hail, damaging winds, and perhaps an isolated, brief/weak tornado.


We'll need to closely watch later model suites as they come in and monitor mesoscale surface observations tomorrow to really hone in on any severe weather threat.

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