Valid 04-04-2023

There is an Elevated Risk (26-40%) of Severe Weather for southwestern Berrien and Cass counties on Tuesday. To the north and east a Minscule Risk (11%-25%) of Severe Weather in place for the remainder of the southwestern portion of the WMIWX Coverage Area. Beyond that, a Thunderstorm Risk is in place.

---

Details are still being ironed out but models are coming into some level of agreement and forecast a strong trough and accompanying deepening low pressure cyclone moving through the upper mid-west and into the Great Lakes region Tuesday and Tuesday night.

While a super-cellular mode appears to be favorable in the mid-west a linear squall line is what we are concerned with here in western Michigan. We will have to watch this closely and will provide updates in future outlooks as necessary as timing, track, and intensity are all still very much uncertain.