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Valid 04-04-2023

There is an Elevated Risk (26%-40%) of Severe Weather for the West Michigan Weather Coverage Area on Tuesday from midafternoon through early Wednesday morning. Southwest of Berrien County a Significant Risk delineation has been added for parts of northeast Indiana and northwest Illinois. Northeast of a Muskegon to Grand Rapids to Jackson line a Minuscule Risk is in place and northeast of Osceola County a Thunderstorm Risk is in place.

 

A strong short wave trough will bring a decent potential for isolated, or even scattered to possibly widespread severe weather impacts, to much of lower Michigan, especially southwest lower Michigan.


This trough and accompanying mid-level jet and deepening low-pressure system will bring favorable kinematics into much of the upper mid-west and Great Lakes regions. The 500mb surface bulk shear values being brought through the region by this mid-level jet will likely top 100 knots leading to more than sufficient forcing components to be in place across the Great Lakes from Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.


While thermodynamics will be somewhat more favorable than this past Friday (03/31/2023) they will still be modest at best. Surface temperatures will be in the low to mid 60's and possibly upper 60's across lower Michigan. Dew points will struggle to reach 60 and while that will lead to very low dew-point depressions, the overall lack of moisture will likely inhibit the severe potential to a decent degree. Instability will be somewhat favorable for more surface-based convection with SBCAPE values between 500 and 1,500 J/kg.


All of these factors will be influenced by the position of the deepening low-pressure cyclone and the surface heating/moisture returns throughout the day. Regardless, at the time of writing, it appears that a conditional threat for all hazards exists especially across extreme southwestern lower Michigan. Tornadoes, small to large hail, damaging wind gusts, and flash flooding are all in play.


WMIWX will continue to monitor this threat and will provide updates in future outlooks.

 

Forecaster Information:

Graphic: Jonah

Discussion: Jonah


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