There is a Minuscule Risk of Severe Weather (11% - 25%) across portions of the West Michigan Weather coverage area on Sunday. Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe, now appear likely Sunday afternoon and evening. Some uncertainty regrading timing and severity remains but there is enough confidence to prompt the issuance of a delineation for severe weather potential.
A Short Wave Trough is forecasted to continue progressing into the Upper and Central Great Lakes Region late in the day on Sunday. An associated Cold Front is forecasted to prompt thunderstorm initiation as the trough continues to progress east/southeastward through the very late afternoon and early evening hours. The most likely time for strong to severe thunderstorms is between 3 PM and 9 PM EDT on Sunday.
Thermodynamics are forecasted to be favorable for the development and sustainability of thunderstorms, some of which may be strong-severe. Surface temperatures are forecasted to reach into the low - mid 80's during peak heating on Sunday with associated surface dew points in the low - mid 70's with resulting dew point depressions being in the 0-15 degree range.
Current model guidance suggests that surface and mixed-layer CAPE values will be around 1,750 J/kg but may reach as high as 3,500 J/kg, especially in the eastern and southeastern portions of the WMIWX Coverage Area as the front pushes through through the late afternoon and into the early evening hours.
Kinematics are modestly favorable for some strong to severe storms in some areas. The model spread to more accurately determine the impact that wind fields will have on the event are to variable to ascertain at this time.
Limiting factors that may reduce the potential for severe weather include the potential for a lack of destabilization and/or prefrontal convection. Additionally, clearer model guidance on wind fields will be necessary to help solidify this risk for severe weather.
Additionally, it is possible that this risk will shift entirely to the south and southeast of the WMIWX Coverage Area. We will have to monitor this scenario as well.
Possible hazards within and around the severe weather risk delineation include:
Frequent lightning and torrential rainfall.
Scattered - widespread strong to damaging wind gusts of 35-57 MPH.
Scattered - widespread small hail up to nickel size in diameter.
Isolated damaging wind gusts of 60 MPH.
Isolated large hail events up to quarter size in diameter.
An isolated brief/weak tornado or 2.
Minor flash flooding.
WMIWX Forecasters will continue to monitor this threat and will provide updates and additional details in future outlooks.
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