Valid 06/29/2023

There is a Minuscule Risk (11% - 25% Chance) of Severe Weather across the entire lower peninsula of Michigan today with the exception of extreme northeastern and northern portions of the West Michigan Weather coverage area.

This is a highly variable event to forecast due to uncertainty resulting from a very high degree of model variance and professional uncertainty. Each Convective Allowing Model is forecasting a different solution for severe potential than what their counterparts are showing. Models seem to be struggling to accurately forecast both the kinematic and thermodynamic conditions across the entire region.

As aforementioned, this type of event is very difficult to forecast. At the time of writing we believe that the chances of strong to severe thunderstorms are slowly but surely beginning to diminish tomorrow due to a lack of a supportive thermodynamic environment due to several forms of convective inhibition including prefrontal convection, multiple rounds of convection, dense smoke cover during daytime heating periods, and only modest cloud cover clearing throughout the day.

In short, there is a very slim chance for extremely isolated strong to weakly severe thunderstorms to pose a brief damaging wind or large hail threat today, especially across areas of the lower peninsula of Michigan near and south of the I-96 corridor.

Possible hazards across the severe weather risk delineation include:

• Frequent lightning and torrential rainfall.

• Scattered - widespread strong to damaging wind gusts of 35-57 MPH.

• Scattered - widespread small hail up to nickel size in diameter.

• Isolated damaging wind gusts of 60 MPH.

• Isolated large hail events up to quarter size in diameter.

• An isolated brief/weak tornado or 2.

• Minor flash flooding.

WMIWX will continue to monitor this difficult forecast and will provide updates via Twitter and the updates section below as necessary.