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Valid 07-26-2023

Current model guidance is showing an increasingly likely threat for scattered to perhaps more widespread strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. A strong shortwave trough and accompanying surface low will move eastward through the Great Lakes region as it exits the upper midwest. There is an increased potential for perhaps stronger or more widespread strong to severe thunderstorms across southern and southeastern portions of lower MI in the red delineation on the graphic map. Damaging wind gusts to 70 MPH, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are the primary threats.

Ahead of the surface trough, scattered to widespread convection in the form of rain showers and perhaps some thunderstorms will be ongoing across lower Michigan as a result of strong warm air flow into the region. As the morning progresses a low level jet should force a majority of this early morning convection east/southeast by about 11am local time.

Warm air advection will continue to stream into lower Michigan as we approach peak heating. Surface temperatures are forecasted to reach well into upper 70's and low 80's with locally higher readings possible. Surface moisture will be plentiful with surface based dew points forecasted to be in the 70's across the WMIWX coverage area. Additionally, models currently forecast anywhere from 1,000 - 4,000 J/kg of CAPE across much of the area.

Kinematics are also modestly favorable for the development and intensification of strong to severe weather though we will hold off on discussing this in more detail until there is more model agreement in terms of the placement of the low level jet and the strength of the modest westerly flow. Nonetheless, wind bards and curved hodographs do support some limited tornado potential as well as perhaps a slightly increased wind threat. Model guidance throughout the day will be used to fine tune this forecast for the Day 2 afternoon update as well as Day 1 outlooks tomorrow.

As aforementioned, morning convection may limit this threat to some degree. Overall intensity and coverage of the severe weather threat will be highly influenced by the evolution of the morning convection. Whether or not, and to what degree, the environment can recover behind the morning convection may increase or decrease the threat for severe weather. Bottom line; expect forecast changes for this threat. Stay tuned to WMIWX and official sources for updates.

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