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Valid 07-26-2023

All eyes are turned to the convection in Wisconsin this morning. This AM convection will be the final piece to this forecast puzzle and whether or not it can survive the trip across western Wisconsin and Lake Michigan will be key in determining our severe weather threat today. The delineations on the map graphic remain unchanged this morning. The 06z Model guidance is still supportive of a strong shortwave trough and accompanying surface low will move eastward through the Great Lakes region as it exits the upper midwest. There is an increased potential for perhaps stronger or more widespread strong to severe thunderstorms across southern and southeastern portions of lower MI in the red delineation on the graphic map. Damaging wind gusts to 70 MPH, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are the primary threats.


Ahead of the surface trough, scattered to widespread convection in the form of rain showers and perhaps some thunderstorms will be ongoing across lower Michigan as a result of strong warm air flow into the region. As the morning progresses a low level jet should force a majority of this early morning convection east/southeast by about 11am local time. Warm air advection will continue to stream into lower Michigan as we approach peak heating. Surface temperatures are forecasted to reach well into upper 70's and low 80's with locally higher readings possible. Surface moisture will be plentiful with surface based dew points forecasted to be in the 70's across the WMIWX coverage area. Additionally, models currently forecast anywhere from 1,000 - 4,000 J/kg of CAPE across much of the area. Dew point depressions however, are modest at best, at around 20 degrees in some locations which may inhibit, to a minimal degree, some of the severe threat.


Kinematics are also modestly favorable for the development and intensification of strong to severe weather. Surface shear is forecasted to be at about 40 knots which is more than sufficient for these mid-summer type severe weather setups. Wind bards and curved hodographs continue to support some limited tornado potential as well as perhaps a slightly increased wind threat.


As aforementioned, morning convection may limit this threat to some degree. Overall intensity and coverage of the severe weather threat will be highly influenced by the evolution of the morning convection currently in Wisconsin. If the convection in Wisconsin can sustain the journey over the lake we may face a somewhat reduced severe threat. If the convection dies out we may face an increased severe threat this afternoon. If the first scenario comes to fruition we will face to rounds of severe weather potential with the latter one dependent on whether or not, and to what degree, the environment can recover behind the morning convection.


Additional forecast changes for this threat are expected throughout the day with the evolution of morning convection.

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