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Get Updates On Severe Weather Forecasts!

Valid Monday 01/15/2024

Scattered to widespread school closures are once again expected across a vast majority of our coverage area for Monday.

This outlook does not account for schools that are already closed due to the holiday and assumes all schools would be operating as normal.

Very quickly, we just want to highlight a change to our school closing graphics. We have realized that we need to be able to account for hazardous temperatures when accounting for school closure risks. In light of that realization, we now have two graphics for closures. The one depicted above does not have an area to account for ice accretion risk whereas the one we normally would use, depicted to the left, does. This is so that the graphic above, which depicts Monday's school closure risk, can be used to account for dangerous Wind Chills during the winter months or Heat Indices in the summertime.

The risk for school closures last week was largely due to heavy synoptic and lake effect snow and blowing snow resulting in reduced visibility and while that threat will nevertheless play a factor in school closures tomorrow, the bigger risk is related to the very cold wind chills that are expected to impact the southern, southeastern, and far eastern portions of our coverage area.

We have led this risk with a broad pink-shaded "High Risk" (71-90% chance) across the southern and southeastern edges of our coverage area to account for the wind chill risk as "feels-like" temperatures are expected to fall into the -10 to -20 degree range this evening and into Monday morning. We believe this will lead to widespread school closures across this area.

Generally, as we explore the map further to the north and west we will see less of a wind chill risk and more of a blowing snow/additional lake effect snow risk.

The red-shaded "Significant Risk" (51-70% chance) areas are indicative of wind chills in the 5 to -5 degree range or, for the western and southwestern red-shaded areas, expected additional blowing snow and lake effect accumulations.

Lower risks, indicated by orange and yellow shaded areas surround these areas as lake-effect snow will not be as impactful but the risk for blowing snow, freezing/snow-packed roadways, and cold temperatures may lead schools to delay opening, run buses on paved roads only, or close.

We are also issuing a School Closing Outlook for Tuesday (01/16/2024) as wind chills are expected to continue to be somewhat hazardous. That outlook can be viewed here.

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