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West Michigan Severe Weather Risk Expanded For Tuesday

Areas south and west of a Holland to Eaton Rapids to Jackson line are now included in the SPC's Day 4 "15-30%" Risk of Severe Weather.
NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 4 Probabalistic Severe Weather Outlook - 15-30% "Slight" Risk (Level 1/2)

The severe weather risk for Tuesday has been expanded in the latest SPC Extended Range Severe Weather Outlook and now includes much more of southwestern lower Michigan. Areas south and west of a Holland to Eaton Rapids to Jackson line are now included in the SPC's Day 4 "15-30%" Risk of Severe Weather.


Confidence in the potential for severe weather is still relatively low as there is quite a bit of spread, or variability, in the various runs of the computer weather models. Regardless, it appears that an "all-hazards" risk with at least some threat of damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes is on the table.


The theme with this outlook will continue to be; "monitor the latest forecast for Tuesday and stay tuned for updates." Discussing specific timing, threats, etc. is still unreasonable given the overall low confidence. By tomorrow, we should start to be able to discuss more specific details, at least to some degree.


Remember that a 15% Extended Range Severe Weather Outlook, like we see above - in place for Tuesday, typically will equate to a Day 1 Categorical Slight Risk (Level 2/5) though the potential is certainly there for it to be a higher risk, and even a lower risk if a relatively rarer case of severe potential lessening occurs.

Graphic shows how a SPC 15-30% risk will typically evolve into a Slight Risk (level 2/5) or higher.

Threats for severe weather may exist on Wednesday as well but predictability is too low at this time per the SPC and hence will leave our focus on Tuesday until details become clearer.

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