WMIWX and the weather community as a whole get a lot of feedback after these types of events. Citizens ask questions like:

"When was a tornado forecasted?"

"Why was there no warning?"

The bottom line is that we cannot predict when and where a tornado is going to occur with 100% accuracy. All we can do is make a guess. Forecasting severe weather is very difficult and is still a science in which there is more to the puzzle that we don't know than what we do know.

This event was no different; it was very difficult to forecast. But the fact is, there was a forecast.

The state of Michigan and much of the remainder of the Great Lakes region had been in a very unstable to extremely unstable environment for several days, with multiple chances for severe weather over that time period. In West Michigan, there had been a very strong atmospheric capping inversion in place at the 850mb level, which had prevented storm initiation the previous couple of days. 

While questions remained on whether or not Thursday's CAP would continue to hold as it had the previous days it quickly became apparent that a different outcome was in store. The initial Day 1 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center had placed portions of central western Michigan in a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe weather, including a 2% tornado risk. As the day progressed, model guidance began to clearly indicate that the CAP was not going to be able to prevent storms as it had in the days prior. Most of the models indicated a threat for explosive storm development in an extremely unstable environment favorable for the development of significant damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. The SPC issued an updated outlook, complete with an upgrade to an Enhanced Risk for damaging winds up to 75mph and a couple of tornadoes.

This forecast would very soon come to fruition.