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All Hazards Upgrade For Tuesday. Severe Weather Increasingly Likely For West Michigan


Summary:

As I expected the threat for all severe hazards has increased to at least some degree across southern lower Michigan for tomorrow including threats of damaging wind gusts, large hail and potentially very large hail, and tornadoes.


The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather for Tuesday for areas generally south of the I-96 corridor.



Discussion:

As aforementioned the threat for all hazards has increased; tornado threat has increased from 2% to 5%, damaging wind threat has increased from 5% to 15%, and the threat for large hail has increased from 5% to 15%, and even 15% SIGHAIL (black-hatched area) across extreme southern lower Michigan.


While the potential for a higher severe weather threat tomorrow has been realized, there is also still a good amount of uncertainty surrounding this forecast, as well as a high potential for morning rain showers to weaken and/or totally prevent afternoon showers and storms from becoming strong to severe.


It will be necessary to continue to monitor the latest computer weather model guidance as the event draws nearer and we'll continue to provide updates as necessary.




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