Blizzard On Monday? First Look At Our Forecast

Lot's to talk about with this post! Here is our initial forecast suite for Monday.

❄️ Snowfall (Map 1):

Snow totals will be on the lower-end of the spectrum for this particular winter system, especially the further eat you go.

Along US-12, and south and east of a Three Rivers to Stanton to Marion line a generalized 1-3 inches of snow is expected. The highest totals will be where lake-effect snow bands can be carried that far inland by the very strong winds (see map 2).

Farther west, along and west of M-66, we do anticipate that totals will begin to creep into the 2-5 inch range with locally higher amounts, again where the snow bands are carried further inland.

The highest totals of the entire event will be along and west of US-131 where a generalized 3-6 inches with locally higher amounts, and especially near Ludington, Hart, Baldwin, and the surrounding areas where 5-8+ inches appears likely.

The strong winds and heavy snow will creat significant blowing and drifting snow which will result in highly variable totals and make measuring very difficult. Snow drifts could easily be measured in feet, not inches, in many areas, especially west of US-131.

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🌬️ Winds (Map 2):

Strong to damaging winds are the major factor with this storm system.

Widespread west winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts up to 55 MPH are expected. These winds will cause tree damage, make driving difficult for high-profile vehicles, cause scattered to widespread power outages, and result in significant blowing and drifting snow.

West of US-131, and especially along US-31 and the immediate lakeshore, gusts may reach 55-65 MPH!

For reference, winds this strong are what we see Severe Thunderstorm Warnings issued for during the summertime. So think about winds that strong but just for most of the day on Monday rather than for the few minutes we would normally see them during a severe thunderstorm event.

As aforementioned, these winds are our most influential factor for this storm system and the amount of blowing and drifting snow that will result from these winds combined with the snow could result in blizzard conditions along and west of US-131. It's still too early to determine if we will eventually see Blizzard Warnings or not, but that is certainly a possibility at this point.

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🚗 Travel Forecast (Map 3):

Major impacts to travel are expected with widespread area of *at least* dangerous travel expected along and west of US-131. I think impossible or life-threatening travel conditions needing to be added to this map for parts of the area is a very real possibility.

Moderate impacts are currently expected between US-131 and US-127 and those conditions may worsen to the point where we need to add in "Dangerous Travel" conditions to this zone as well.

As we get east of US-127 impacts will start to wane but we will still see rapid changes in visibility and slick roads so we may need to add "Moderate Impacts" to this zone as well.

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More details can be found in our recent live stream on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/live/QI-HzcZjqYo?si=W2uS1IzfvNsvQNlL if you have questions and of course, you can always leave a comment for us here too!