School Delay Outlook for Thursday 02/19/2026
- Jacob Melton
- 19 hours ago
- 2 min read
Day 1 School Delay Outlook Results
Forecast Results Issued: Thursday, February 19, 2026, 10:00 AM
As expected, several schools reported delayed starts this morning due to dense fog. Delays were primarily concentrated in our northeastern forecast area, including Clare, Gratiot, Isabella, Mecosta, and Osceola counties.
This outcome lines up perfectly with our placement of the “>40% probability for delays” risk zone. No delays were reported in our secondary “>10% probability for delays” risk zone southeast of Lansing. While areas of dense fog did form there, conditions were not impactful enough for districts to delay the start of the school day.
Day 1 School Delay Outlook
Forecast Valid: Thursday, February 19, 2026
Forecast Issued: Wednesday, February 18, 2026, 7:50 PM
Forecasters: Jacob Melton
NOTE:
We apologize for the late release of this outlook this evening. Severe Weather Coverage earlier this evening has prevented us from looking over forecast data in order to release this outlook by our typical 7:00 PM timeframe.
Summary:
Scattered school delays will be possible on Thursday morning, especially for some of our eastern areas, due to the potential for areas of dense fog.
Discussion:
Areas of Dense Fog have already developed this evening as a result of rainfall earlier in the day, contributing to low-level moisture combined with clear skies. Fog is already locally dense in spots, with the Alma observation site in Gratiot County reporting 0.15mi visibility at 7:15 PM this evening.
This has prompted the National Weather Service in Grand Rapids to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for Clare, Gratiot, Isabella, Mecosta, Montcalm, and Osceola counties. This is in effect until 7 AM on Thursday.
We do think the best potential for scattered school delays will be in this general area, and as such, we have placed >40% probabilities for delays along and northeast of a roughly Reed City-Big Rapids-Stanton-Ithaca line. >10% probabilities for delays have been placed immediately surrounding this risk zone.
We have also opted to place an additional >10% probability zone for delays along the US-127 corridor south of Lansing. There is some high-resolution guidance support for localized areas of dense fog in this area tomorrow morning as well, especially with recent thunderstorm activity around the Lansing area. However, too much uncertainty regarding how widespread this area of potential dense fog is has precluded the placement of a 40% probability zone at the time of forecast issuance.
Graphical Forecast:
