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Isolated Large Hail Possible This Afternoon


Bottom line up front; very low chances for isolated large hail events to 1" (quarter size) in diameter across all of southern lower Michigan, especially along and south of the I-94 corridor this afternoon and through the evening.

Day 1 Marginal Risk area highlights low-end chances for weak severe weather in the form of large hail (5% risk) across southern lower Michigan, primarily along and south of I-94.
NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Categorical Severe Weather Outlook (Marginal Risk - 1/5) [Issued: 2:00 AM/6Z]

As I anticipated the overall severe weather threat for Michigan has become even less probable. Overnight computer weather model suites have really backed off on the northward extent of the warm front that we discussed in our forecast from yesterday morning (see related posts below) and mentioned that it would be a key player in the extent of our severe weather threat across southern and southwestern lower Michigan today.

The aforementioned warm front, which was previously forecasted to nudge up towards the I-94 corridor, or perhaps slightly further north, is now only shown to make it to the IN/MI state line at best.

Hence, the severe risk has been moved south and the overall probability of severe storms has been lowered even further.

The "All-Hazards" risk has been reduced to a low-end risk (5%) for Large Hail across the southern portion of lower Michigan within the dark green shaded areas on the graphic above. The damaging wind risk, as well as the tornado risk, are now negligible (less than 5% in all areas and less than 2% in all areas respectively) for lower Michigan today.

Of course, any severe risk, no matter how small, needs to be taken seriously and Michiganders in the risk area need to remain #WeatherAware today.

As of writing, we are not planning to activate Storm Chase Mode today as the threat will be very isolated and low-end in nature if a severe threat does come to fruition, which again is looking less and less likely.

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