School Closing Outlook for Monday 03/16/2026
- Jacob Melton
- 18 hours ago
- 2 min read
Day 1 School Closing Outlook Results
Forecast Results Issued: Monday, March 16, 2026, 1:00 PM
The vast majority of our school closures/delays this morning were reported in our northern zones, particularly near/north of the M-46 corridor. This was due to the wintry mixed precipitation that fell across this region last night into this morning.
Other isolated closures were reported in St. Joseph Co. and in Dewitt (near Lansing) due to power outage-related impacts from severe weather and gusty winds. In the case of Dewitt in particular, this was likely due to gravity-wave-induced surface winds across the Lansing metro area last night.
If allowed to do the outlook again, we would have drawn higher probabilities of “Elevated” or even “Likely” across our northern zones. We would also have considered Minuscule probabilities across our southeastern areas to cover the isolated closure potential from the gusty winds and severe storm activity, although confidence in that scenario playing out was too low at outlook creation time yesterday evening.
Day 1 School Closing Outlook
Forecast Valid: Monday, March 16, 2026
Forecast Issued: Sunday, March 15, 2026, 8:30 PM
Forecasters: Jacob Melton
Summary:
A “Medium” risk for school closures exists, mainly near/north of the US-10 corridor, on Monday morning due to a wintry mix of precipitation causing impacts for the Monday morning commute.
Discussion:
As mentioned above, a wintry mix of precipitation is expected to impact our northern areas, particularly near/north of US-10, tonight and will continue into Monday morning, creating impacts for the Monday morning commute. Some schools have already announced closures for Monday morning, including Baldwin and Pine River area schools.
We have gone with a “Medium” risk for school closures along/north of a Hart/Reed City/Harrison line, which is where the greatest confidence in icing up to a tenth of an inch will take place. Probabilities drop off with southeastward extent, where there is less confidence in ice accretion being enough to cause impacts for the morning commute.
We have also extended “Minuscule” probabilities along the Lake Michigan shoreline (west of US-131). Recent model guidance indicates a transition from rain to snow in this area around the time of the morning commute, combined with the potential for gusty winds up to around 30-45 MPH, which could result in blowing snow and visibility concerns. We do not feel there will be enough snow accumulations around commute time at this point to cause closures, but we cannot fully rule out the potential of closures due to the timing and visibility concerns.
Graphical Forecast:
