School Closing Outlook for Tuesday 01/06/2026
- Jacob Melton
- Jan 5
- 4 min read
Updated: Jan 6
Day 1 School Closing Outlook Results
Forecast Results Issued: Tuesday, January 6th, 2026, 10:00 AM EST Update Issued: Tuesday, January 6th, 2026, 2:00 PM EST
2 PM Update: The results map has been updated to reflect Charlotte Public Schools, which has opted to release Charlotte Middle School and Charlotte High School students early at 2 PM to allow for additional time for secondary route buses to travel safely and return in time for the elementary routes. This is due to a combination of fog and icing on the secondary rural roads. Transparency is a big part of our forecasts here at West Michigan Weather. Here are the results from our school closing outlook issued yesterday for this morning.
The majority of the school closures this morning were north of the M-46 corridor, as generally anticipated. While the amount of closures would have verified “Medium” or even “Elevated” probabilities, especially within the “Limited” risk zone, confidence in the start time of the wintry precipitation, along with the magnitude of impacts from any fog and/or freezing drizzle on road conditions, was too low to place said probabilities when the forecast was created.
South of the M-46 corridor, the vast majority of schools remained open today, with only Maple Valley Schools in Eaton County and Fennville Public Schools in Allegan County reporting closures and/or delays due to icy road conditions. Fennville’s 2-hour delay fell outside of our “Minuscule” risk zone, but road conditions are difficult to predict in advance. Outside of these cases, impacts from fog and slick secondary roadways were not widespread enough to warrant closures and/or delays.
Day 1 School Closing Outlook
Forecast Valid: Tuesday, January 06, 2026
Forecast Issued: Monday, January 05, 2026, 4:50 PM EST
Forecasters: Owen Drake & Jacob Melton
Special Note:
Beginning this year, School Closing Outlooks at West Michigan Weather will begin to account for/forecast for the risk of severe weather.
Severe weather is defined as any thunderstorm wind gust over 58 MPH, any hailstone over 1" in diameter, or tornadoes.
In past years, we have not considered these threats as something that has the potential to result in school closings or delays, and for the most part, even on days that do have a severe weather risk, that will remain the case.
However, given some of the higher-profile/higher-threat events of recent years, (April 5th, 2023, February 27th, 2024, May 7th, 2024, March 30th, 2025, and May 15th, 2025), we do believe that in some rare cases, especially if the event is well-forecasted by the NWS, that some risk for early dismisals, or even school closings, is possible when severe weather threatens.
The risk assessment for severe weather regarding our School Closing Outlooks will consider the NWS Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlooks, any Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Watches issued by the NWS, and any power outages that may exist in the days following a substantial severe weather event.
Also, we have gotten a lot of questions from all of you about our School Closing Outlooks and how we create them. If you'd appreciate a video of how we make these forecasts, or even having them done live sometimes, please let us know in the comments! Summary:
The potential for a wintry mix, including freezing rain, in our northern areas, along with the potential for areas of dense fog and even freezing fog, may result in the limited potential for School closures or delays on Tuesday morning.
Discussion:
A storm system is expected to move into West Michigan late tonight into Tuesday morning, bringing a wintry mix of rain, snow, sleet, and even freezing rain to the West Michigan area. The other concern is for areas of dense fog and even some freezing fog, which may help to contribute at least to some delay potential.
We have opted to go with “Limited” probabilities along and northeast of Baldwin to Big Rapids to Mt. Pleasant to cover the wintry mix and freezing rain potential late tonight into Tuesday morning. There is a Winter Weather Advisory that goes into effect at 11 PM tonight for Clare, Isabella, Lake, Mason, Mecosta, Newaygo, and Osceola counties, valid until 1 PM Tuesday afternoon, where up to around one-tenth of an inch of ice is expected by Tuesday morning.
The best chances for around or even a bit over one-tenth of an inch of ice accretion are along and northeast of the Baldwin/Big Rapids/Mt. Pleasant line previously mentioned.
While typically ice accretion amounts between one-tenth and two-tenths of an inch would warrant “Medium” probabilities, the main thing precluding those probabilities is timing, as the bulk of the freezing rain will not move in until after 7 AM, and decisions for many schools regarding closures and/or delays are made before that time.
As for the “Minuscule” risk area, this covers not only the freezing rain potential but also the potential for areas of dense fog, including the potential for areas of freezing fog overnight. For the freezing rain threat, the Minuscule risk area extends down to around the M-46 corridor, where a glaze of ice will be possible early Tuesday morning. Temperatures rising above freezing through the morning will limit impacts there, however, as precipitation will transition to regular rain.
For the rest of the Minuscule risk south of M-46 and east of US-131, the primary risk transitions to the potential of areas of dense fog. While areas of freezing fog will be possible early Tuesday morning. Areas south of M-46 will warm above freezing through the morning hours, once again limiting any icing impacts from the freezing fog if it develops. The “Minuscule” probabilities for these areas are not necessarily for closing potential, but to account for the potential of delays due to visibility issues from fog. In addition, the minuscule risk also accounts for the potential of some rural districts operating buses on paved roads only due to unpaved secondary roadways potentially remaining slick a bit longer even after temperatures do warm above freezing. West of US-131 (besides areas north of M-46), fog is expected to be more patchy in nature, and temperatures for the most part stay above freezing for the morning commute, thus closures or delays are unlikely in this area.
Graphical Forecast:
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