School Closing Prediction for Tuesday 11/11/2025

Day 1 School Closing Prediction Results

www.WestMichiganWeather.net/closings

Forecast Valid: Tuesday, November 11, 2025

Forecast Issued: Sunday, November 10, 2025, 4:25 PM EST

Forecaster(s): Jacob Melton

Forecast Results Published: Tuesday, November 11, 2025, 9:09 AM EDT

While school closings were not as numerous as we anticipated today, the few schools that did close were within the confines of our highest probability, with Ludington Area Schools, Ludington Catholic Schools, Pentwater Public Schools, and Hart Public Schools all closed on Tuesday due to poor road conditions. All of these are within the aforementioned "Elevated" risk area.

Outside of this area, no other closures or delays were reported. Given that today is Veterans' Day so some schools are already closed, and the fact that we had low confidence to begin with in the creation of our forecast, given the lake-effect nature of the event, we'd say that this forecast verified pretty well despite only having one cluster of closings.

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Day 1 School Closing Prediction www.WestMichiganWeather.net/closings Forecast Valid: Tuesday, November 11, 2025 Forecast Issued: Monday, November 10, 2025, 4:25 PM EST Forecaster: Jacob Melton

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Summary: Areas of heavy lake-effect snow are forecast to continue to impact parts of West Michigan, especially this evening, before beginning to taper off somewhat into the overnight hours. This additional snow accumulation may result in some additional school delays and closures across parts of the area on Tuesday morning. Discussion: As mentioned above, we continue to have areas of heavy lake-effect snowfall ongoing throughout the day today, and is forecast to continue at times throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening before beginning to taper off overnight tonight. While not as strong as yesterday, continued stronger winds with gusts up to 30 MPH, and the potential for liquid snow melt from the daytime hours today to once again re-freeze as ice and black ice as temperatures drop again tonight into the middle to upper 20s, also contribute to some concern for school closure/delay potential for Tuesday morning. The combination of these threats would typically result in higher-end probabilities being needed to address the closures/delays concerns, especially taking into consideration the early-season nature of this event. However, this continues to be a classic and difficult lake-effect forecast with poor confidence in any specific area seeing significant enough additional snowfall accumulations, as even a very minor shift in wind direction can result in major differences in final snow totals. With this in consideration, we've opted again to be conservative with this forecast, and this will be noted throughout this outlook. Snow Threat Index (4/6): Our "Threat Index" for snow is once again at a level 4/6 for this event and is the leading threat index given the amounts and nature of the snowfall being forecasted. Our area of particular concern is portions of Mason and Oceana counties (such as in/around the Ludington and Hart areas), where total additional snow accumulations of 4 to 9 inches are forecast. With the snow continuing to be heavy and wet in nature, not only do we need to be concerned of hazardous travel conditions, but we also have to take into consideration the weight of the snow on trees that still have a fair amount of leaves on them. This could once again result in some potential for downed trees and powerlines, which will only further contribute to a threat for some scattered if not widespread school closures/delays in areas that do end up seeing the most persistent and heaviest snow bands. Elsewhere, we have maintained Medium probabilities along the rest of the Lake Michigan shoreline from roughly Muskegon down to the state line along with western parts of Cass county. While total additional snow accumulations are not expected to be quite as significant as in parts of Mason/Oceana counties, accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are still forecast with some localized higher amounts not entirely out of the question. Once you get away from the lakeshore additional forecasted snow accumulations quickly taper off, and thus school closing probabilities quickly drop off especially once you get near/east of the US-131 corridor. Ice Threat Index (1/6) and Wind Threat Index (1/6): In addition to the additional forecast snowfall, there is once again at least some concern for what we refer to as "re-freezing" or "flash freezing" - a process where liquid snow melt refreezes into ice as temperatures fall overnight, resulting in the formation of ice and/or black ice. While this forecast does not deal with the potential of freezing rain or sleet, this type of ice formation is included in the "Ice Threat Index" Temperatures this afternoon are generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with some select locations above freezing away from the shoreline where lake-effect snowfall continues. Even in the areas not above freezing, sunshine has contributed to some melting as well where snow is not ongoing. While forecasted low temperatures are not expected to be "as cold" as Monday morning, lows in the middle to even some lower 20s away from the lakeshore are forecast. This will allow any residual water to freeze and once again create patches of ice and/or black ice, especially on secondary roads or in rural areas. Additionally, some minor threats do continue to stem from the wind as well. This is primarily concerning areas along the lakeshore that see more persistent and heavier lake effect snowfall along the lakeshore and especially in portions of Mason and Oceana counties. While wind gusts are not anticipated to be as high as yesterday, some gusts up to 30 MPH cannot be ruled out, particularly in the heaviest lake effect snow bands during the evening hours. This again has a 2-fold impact on the forecast; first, these gusts will contribute to isolated to scattered areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility, especially in any open areas. Two, these gusts will further contribute to the potential of tree and power line damage resulting in isolated power outages, which may force some schools to close regardless of road conditions tomorrow morning. Given the gusts are forecast to be slightly lower, we have opted to go down to a level 1/6 on the wind threat index, but we still wanted to make you aware of the potential. Graphical Forecast: