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Severe Weather Possible In West Michigan For The Holiday Weekend


The holiday weekend will not be a total rainout, BUT chances for rain, thunderstorms, and even severe weather are possible at times this weekend! Michiganders, especially those who will be outdoors camping, swimming, boating, and away from shelter/news access, need to be aware of this potential BEFORE starting activities this weekend.

Severe weather can be unpredictable and very dangerous. Make sure you're #WeatherAware and #WeatherReady this weekend!

Today (05/24/2024):

Our first chances for severe weather will come later this evening as a cold front and attendant squall line of showers and storms moves through the region.

Similar to Tuesday's storms and associated severe weather threat, we will see a weakening line of showers and embedded thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe, move across Lake Michigan from the West.

What is different about today as compared to Tuesday, is that we have higher confidence in storms surviving the trip across the Lake. The good news, however, is that it appears this line of storms will not have as much potential to be as intense as Tuesday's storms could have been if they had survived the trip across the Lake.

The main time frame for severe weather will be from late this evening (7:00 PM) until very early in the morning hours tomorrow (3:00 AM 05/25/2024). The primary threat will be for damaging wind gusts of 60 MPH. A lesser threat will exist for large hail up to 1 inch in diameter. The tornado risk still appears negligible (less than 2%) across the entire area as we will lack the instability needed to fuel storm updrafts.

As we say with any overnight severe weather risk: think about how you will receive warnings while you are asleep, especially while outdoors camping! Do not rely on outdoor warning sirens to notify you of imminent severe weather.

Sunday (05/26/2024):

Sunday will bring the next risk of severe weather to West Michigan.

The detials surrounding this threat are still widely unknown and are really limiting confidence on the forecast. The SPC has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather on Sunday as a cold front is posed to interact with a warm front draped over the state.

There is a chance, given that current computer weather model guidance suggests that a more widespread/robust severe threat could exist here in Michigan on Sunday, that we see this risk, and the higher risks in place to the south of Michigan, expand northward into Lower Michigan as the event draws nearer and clearer details come into view. There is not yet enough confidence to highlight specific corridors of higher severe potential.

We will need to keep an eye on this threat very closely, especially if this risk continues to shift/expand northward further into Lower Michigan and continues to show a risk for a higher and more widespread severe weather instance.

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