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Severe Weather Still Possible In West Michigan This Evening


Summary:

There is a low threat of isolated and rather weak severe weather later this evening as thunderstorms move eastward through West Michigan. Level 1/5 Marginal Severe Weather Risk and Level 1/4 Marginal Excessive Rainfall Risk in place for the region.


Discussion:

The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight an area of low-end severe weather potential for West Michigan today. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening to our west and track eastward through lower Michigan overnight tonight.


The most likely time for thunderstorms, and any associated severe threat, will be from about 9:00 PM this evening until 4:00 AM early tomorrow morning.


Thunderstorms are expected to pose a risk for lightning, gusty, or perhaps damaging, wind gusts of 40-60 MPH, small to large hail up to one inch in diameter, and locally heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding. The risk for a tornado continues to appear negligible (less than 2%) across all of the West Michigan area.


The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted lakeshore areas west of a line from Benton Harbor to Grand Rapids to Rogers City as having a Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) for rainfall amounts exceeding Flash Flooding criteria.



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