There is an Elevated Risk (26% - 40%) of Severe Weather for central and eastern portions of the West Michigan Weather Coverage Area on Wednesday. Northwest of a Cheboygan to Muskegon to St. Joseph to South Bend, IN line a Minuscule Risk is in place and a Thunderstorm Risk is in place for points west of Chicago, IL, Kenosha, WI, Milwaukee, WI, Green Bay, WI, and portions of the north-central, west-central, and northwestern Upper Peninsula of Michigan.
The deepening cyclone mentioned in the Day 3 Outlook (valid for 04-04-2023) will continue to progress northeastward from the upper-midwest and into the eastern Great Lakes region on Wednesday.
The intense kinematics will continue to be in play with a mid-level jet progressing with the associated deepening cyclone aforementioned. 500mb surface bulk shear is still forecasted to be in excess of 90 knots through the afternoon and evening on Wednesday and moderate-strong southwesterly flow will allow for low-level curved hodographs to some extent.
In contrast to the previous day's threat thermodynamics will be moderate-strong with surface temperatures forecasted to reach into the mid 60's to low 70's especially across southeastern lower Michigan. Dew points across the entire Lower Peninsula of Michigan are forecasted to be in the low to mid 60's with associated dew point depressions of around 5 degrees. This degree of surface heating and moisture returns will be more than favorable for the development and sustainment of Thunderstorm activity across the region. Surface-based potential may be somewhat limited by the only modest - moderate SBCAPE values in place across the region from about 250-1,200 J/kg.
Still, all hazards are certainly in play. Including a somewhat increased threat of tornadoes. Damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding are also of concern. WMIWX will continue to monitor this threat and will provide additional details in future forecasts.
Forecaster Information:
Graphic: Jonah Discussion: Jonah
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