School Closing Outlook
Issued: Sunday, February 16, 2025 1:52 PM
Special early access is rewarded to our Community Supporters! Join a plan for as low $1.99 per month and help us on our mission to serve all of you and provide crucial, life-saving weather information, live storm chasing, and snow day predictions!
Check back on our social media pages linked at the top menu of this page later this evening if you can't support us for our full forecast!
Summary:
School closings are possible on for several days early this week as very cold arctic air brings yet another bout of sub-zero temperatures and dangerously cold wind chills, as well as additional lake-effect snow, to parts of West Michigan.
Discussion:
Several days early this week will have the potential to see school closings and/or delays due to the aforementioned lake-effect snow and arctic air.
Monday 02/17/2025:
Monday will be the first day with potential, albeit low, as marginal temperatures, wind chills, and lake-effect will create conditions that could support isolated school closings or delays Monday morning.
In general, 1-3 inches of new snowfall and wind chill values of 0 to 5 below zero will occur area-wide come 5:00 AM Monday morning. Therefore we have blanketed our entire coverage area with <15% probabilities of snow days or delays with the exceptions of a few areas.
Areas at greatest risk to see 2-4 inches of snow or wind chill values fall to less than 5 below zero have had probabilities boosted to reflect the slightly higher potential for snow days or delays. Currently, the areas that are favored for the potential of 2-4 inches of snow will be our typical “Northwest flow” zones and include the cities of Ludington, Pentwater, Douglas, South Haven, Allegan, and Kalamazoo. Across these areas we have opted to go with 15-30% probabilities due to this increased lake-effect snowfall potential.
Additionally, we have introduced 15-30% probabilities across some of our Northeast coverage area as well including the cities of Reed City, Mount Pleasant, Clare, Ithaca, Alma, Big Rapids, and Stanton. In this area, wind chill values Monday morning have the potential to drop to as low as 10 below zero. These slightly colder wind chills may prompt a few more school closings and delays than the rest of the area might see.
Tuesday 02/18/2025:
Much higher chances for school closings due to additional lake-effect snow and even colder, dangerous wind chills exist for Tuesday morning.
Lakeshore:
Along the US-31 corridor, we will see additional lake-effect snow, especially within our “Northwest flow” bands. New snow accumulations from 7:00 PM Monday through 5:00 AM Tuesday are currently forecast at 1-5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Additionally, cold wind chills are expected in this region but thanks to the relatively warm Lake Michigan waters, the immediate lakeshore will not see dangerously cold wind chills. Still wind chills ranging from 5 above to as low as 5 below zero are possible and could help contribute to school closures on Tuesday. In this area, we have opted to introduce modest 31-50% probabilities that support widely scatted snow day potential due to the tricky forecast nature of lake-effect snow events and the relatively milder wind chill forecast.
Inland:
Away from the influence of Lake Michigan, there will be less snowfall to contribute to snow day potential but the wind chill values will more than make up for that.
At this time we have introduced maximum Day 2 Outlook probabilities of 51-70% (purple shading) across the remainder of the area as wind chill values are forecasted to fall to values from 10 below zero to as low as 25 below zero on Tuesday morning. Wind chill values this cold are very dangerous and can easily cause frostbite and hypothermia in as little as 15 minutes. Therefore, we anticipate widespread school closing potential across the entire area away from the influence of Lake Michigan.
Upgrades to our overall risk will likely be needed in subsequent outlook updates to reflect the potential for widespread school closings.
Wednesday 02/19/2025:
Wind chills and lake-effect snow will not be as supportive of school closings on Wednesday as slightly warmer air will make its way into much of West Michigan overnight on Tuesday.
Still, across our Northeast coverage area, wind chills could remain below zero on Wednesday morning warming only to around 10 below zero. For this reason, we have opted to introduce low-end probabilities (15-30%) on our first-ever Day 3 Outlook.
The Day 3 Outlook will not be as specific as a Day 1 or Day 2 Outlook due to the increased forecast uncertainties but will be available to help highlight the potential for snow days in the extended period across West Michigan, especially for higher-impact types of events.
Kommentare