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Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook Features Slight Risk

The Storm Prediction Center issued their first categorical outlook this morning, that is to say; the first with the 5 standard, color-coded severe risks we commonly see during the summertime.


NWS Storm Prediciton Center - Day 3 Categorical Severe Weather Outlook (Slight Risk - 2/5). Some cities included: Allegan, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Benton Harbor, Three Rivers, South Haven, Coldwater. Marginal Risk Includes Grand Rapids, Lansing, Muskegon, Big Rapids, Mount Pleasant, and Ludington.
NWS Storm Prediciton Center - Day 3 Categorical Severe Weather Outlook (Slight Risk - 2/5)

Today's Day 3 Outlook features a relatively large Slight Risk for southwestern lower Michigan including portions of Allegan, Barry, VanBuren, Berrien, Kalamazoo, Cass, St. Joseph, Eaton, Calhoun, and Branch Counties. A Marginal Risk is also in place for locations south of a line extending from just north of Ludington to just north of Bay City to Sarnia.


Currently, large hail and damaging winds now appear to be the primary hazards, although a tornado or two cannot be ruled out at this stage, especially across the yellow-shaded slight risk area.


Significant forecast uncertainty accompanies this risk for severe weather as several variables may hamper storm development and hence the severe weather threat may diminish. It will be important to keep an eye on the latest forecasts as slight changes in several different atmospheric factors may drastically change the severity of this event.


Timing of the storms (likely late evening Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday morning) and lack of surface moisture will inhibit storm intensity to some degree as the forecast stands currently. Nonetheless, computer weather models show storms developing to some degree, and hence the severe risk (primarily for large hail and localized damaging winds) cannot be ruled out at this time.


If the mid-level trough and attendant cold front that is acting as the forcing mechanisms for this event speed up even just a little and the storms develop closer to peak-afternoon heating we could likely see a more potent setup develop.


To summarize: Lots of forecast uncertainty remains so we'll need to stay vigilant over the next couple of days. Give us a follow to stay updated on our latest thoughts! Regardless of what severe threat comes to fruition, we do plan to livestream a storm chase on Tuesday, primarily for a full-blown test of our live streaming capabilities. We'd appreciate it if you tuned in!



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