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Severe Weather Possible Tuesday

Well it's February in Michigan so we'd normally be expect to be talking about the next major winter storm but that is apparently not the case for this year. Yes, believe it or not, we have to start talking about the severe weather potential for Michigan next Tuesday. Help make others aware, do your part by sharing this post with your friends and family using the social media share icons down below!


The Storm Prediction Center's Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook has placed southwestern lower Michigan in a small region of it's 15% Risk for Severe Weather. This includes the cities of Benton Harbor, New Buffalo, Niles, and Dowagiac.
NWS Storm Predicition Center - Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook

The Storm Prediction Center's Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook has placed southwestern lower Michigan in a small region of it's 15% Risk for Severe Weather. This includes the cities of Benton Harbor, New Buffalo, Niles, and Dowagiac.


Let's talk a little bit about what this means: The SPC issues severe weather outlooks each day, and while we wanted to unveil these new graphics during Severe Weather Awareness Week coming up in March, that apparently can't wait this year haha. Here's a quick overview of the SPC Severe Weather Outlook scale. For this particular risk we'll want to focus on the "Extended Range Outlooks."



While this type of Severe Weather risk is not unprecedented for Michigan, it is extremely rare, especially for February when we should be talking about Winter Storms. Just to give some background; in 2023 we had 2 of these risks and in 2022 we had just 1.


A 15% Severe Risk in the Day 4-8 range trends to translate to a Day 1 Slight Risk at least and can certainly lead to higher probabilities as forecast confidence continues to increase. Here's a quick breakdown on what a Day 1-3 Slight Risk of Severe Weather means.



It is much too early to start talking about what specific hazards (tornadoes, wind, hail, etc) may come of this severe weather setup. We'll start to be able to better determine those things starting this weekend but as it stands right now the event is too far in the future to start narrowing anything down.


So, bottom line; we have a small area of southwest lower Michigan that has been placed in a Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook by the SPC. This means that these areas currently have a 15% chance of seeing some form of severe weather next Tuesday.


It's important to take this outlook seriously, to be aware of the potential for severe weather, to be aware that this forecast will change in the coming days, and that residents in these areas (and surrounding areas) need to be keeping an eye on the severe weather threat for that particular day.


Follow us on social media for updates on this potential severe weather event. Help make others aware, do your part by sharing this post with your friends and family using the social media share icons down below!

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