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Severe Weather Is Possible In West Michigan This Weekend

Summary:

We've been tracking the potential for severe weather this weekend for more than a week now and the details of the potential threats are now coming into clearer view to some degree.


Saturday 04/27/2024

SPC Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook places areas along and northwest of a Sturgis to Pontiac to Bad Axe line under a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5). Areas northwest of a Grand Haven to Alpena line are in a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) .
NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3 Categorical Severe Weather Outlook - Slight Risk (2/5)
Slight Risk breakdown.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of lower Michigan under a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe weather on Saturday. "All-Hazards" appear to be on the table at this time with thunderstorms fostering a risk for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two.


There is a fair amount of uncertainty with this risk, which is common for a threat that is still 3 days out, but there are a few forecast details that will be working to inhibit the risk for severe weather, including the potential for pre-frontal/morning rain showers, which could tap into the unstable environment that afternoon/evening strong to severe storms would use as fuel, and drain it.


The main message with this severe weather threat for Saturday is that we'll need to continue to evaluate and monitor the latest forecast trends and professional guidance from the SPC and local NWS offices and make adjustments to the severe weather risk on Saturday accordingly. Stay tuned for updates.


Sunday 04/28/2024:

Lower MI not included in severe risk from SPC at this point for Sunday but parts of IL and WI are.
NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 4 Probabalistic Severe Weather Outlook - 15% Risk (Level 1/2)

The severe weather potential for Sunday is even more uncertain. Currently, there is no SPC risk outlined in Michigan for Day 4 but we will continue to watch the forecast as some risk for a lower-end severe threat could be realized for parts of southern lower Michigan on Sunday.


Parts of northwest Illinois and southwest Wisconsin are outlined in a 15% category. Here in Michigan, the predictability of severe weather remains too low to outline areas.

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