The Storm Prediction Center has issued it's latest thinking on the potential for severe weather. The primary focus continues to be on Tuesday evening but we also have a low threat for some strong to severe storms overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. We'll discuss this threat first.
Above is the Day 1 Marginal Risk For Severe Weather, this is driven by a low chance (5%) for large hail. In looking at the latest computer weather model data this risk will primarily be focused east of the US-131 corridor through the early morning hours tomorrow.
Overall this threat will be rather minimal and will not pose any severe risk with the exception of the potential for extremely isolated large hail events.
Following the Tuesday morning threat, our focus will very quickly shift to Tuesday evening. After storms clear out Tuesday morning temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 60's and perhaps 70 across much of lower Michigan, especially near the MI/IN/OH border. It will be a beautiful spring day for much of the day on Tuesday, but unfortunately, with these types of above-average temperatures and these early springtime wind environments, there is a pretty favorable threat for severe weather to occur.
This is the new Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook issued by the SPC. A broad Slight Risk for Severe Weather is in place across much of southern and southwestern lower Michigan. This risk is primarily centered on the threat for severe weather that current computer weather model data suggests will be maximized along and south of the I-94 corridor.
All hazards are in play here, especially closer to the IN and OH borders. Large, to possibly very large, significant, damaging hail is the primary severe weather threat along with damaging wind gusts to 60 MPH, and a couple of tornadoes still cannot be ruled out.
There is still considerable variability between the short-term computer weather models and this is leading to some pretty significant forecast uncertainty still. Persons in the risk areas need to be very much aware of the threat for severe, potentially significant, thunderstorms. Expect changes to be made to the forecast.
We'll provide an update via our blog here, and on social media, later this afternoon and then tomorrow morning and tomorrow closer to the afternoon storm threat as this situation evolves.
Currently, Owen and I do plan to chase and target areas in southern lower Michigan, though we'll refrain from zeroing in on more than that at this time. We'll be livestreaming this so make sure you are subscribed and following West Michigan Weather on YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter!
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