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Valid 04-05-2023

There is a High Risk (66% - 84%) of Severe Weather across much of the central portions of the West Michigan Weather Coverage Area on Wednesday through late evening. A strong likelihood of a squall line with embedded tornadic supercells is forecasted to move through the upper Great Lakes region and Ohio River Valley tomorrow. Prefrontal discrete supercells with an even further increased Tornado Threat have the potential to develop as early as 10am EDT tomorrow.

 

We have upgraded our forecast to include Significant and High Risk Delineations for much of central and north-central lower Michigan as the super-cellular tornado and hail threat have increased pretty substantially with the evolution of the Convective Allowing Models.


A cold front approaching from the west/southwest will arrive about midday on Wednesday. Along and ahead of this cold front a squall line of QLCS will develop with embedded supercells and the potential for discrete supercells ahead of the front. Tornadoes (including the potential for strong and/or long-track tornadoes), damaging wind gusts up to 75mph, and large hail (possibly to Baseball Size in diameter) are possible.


Thermodynamics will be very supportive of the development and/or sustainment of thunderstorms and tornadic supercells across the entire lower peninsula of Michigan. Surface temperatures are forecasted to be in the mid 60's to mid mid 70's ahead of the approaching cold front and dew points will be in the low to mid 60's with resulting dew point depressions of about 5 degrees. These low dew points, combined with moderate - strong surface instability (with SBCAPE values between 1,000 and 3,500 J/kg) will allow for a strong potential for surface-based storms.


Similarly, kinematics are also favorable for severe weather. With an approaching jet forecasted to bring 500mb surface winds to over 100 knots. This will result in substantial forcing and vertical wind shear across much of the region allowing for significant clockwise curved hodographs at the surface that indicate a pretty significant potential of rotating supercells. Aside from convective-based winds and the tornadic wind threat, this jet will also bring Advisory level winds through much of the day tomorrow.

 

Recommended Actions: Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the risk area should be prepared for severe weather operations from early/mid-morning to early evening on Wednesday.


Primary threats include frequent lightning and torrential rainfall, particularly widespread damaging wind gusts of 60 MPH and large hail events up to quarter size in diameter, a few tornadoes, considerable flash flooding, scattered damaging wind gusts up to 75 MPH and very large hail events up to 2 inches in diameter.


Other possible hazards include isolated damaging winds gusts over 80 MPH, isolated giant hail events in excess of baseball size in diameter, and isolated strong (EF-2+) and/or long-track tornadoes.

This is a dangerous risk and poses a potentially considerable threat to life and property. The tornado threat for this event needs to be monitored closely. Have multiple ways to receive life-saving weather alerts.

 

Forecaster Information:

Graphic: Owen

Discussion: Jonah

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