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Marginal Risk For Severe Weather Tuesday Afternoon

A quick-hitting line of showers and thunderstorms will bring a limited severe weather risk to western and southwestern lower Michigan on Tuesday afternoon.


NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Categorical Severe Weather Outlook (Marginal Risk - 1/5) [Issued: 2:00AM/6Z] for Muskegon, Grand Rapids, Holland, Lansing, Berrien, Allegan, Kalamazoo, Greenville, and Ionia.
NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Categorical Severe Weather Outlook (Marginal Risk - 1/5) [Issued: 2:00AM/6Z]

This system has a lot of variables, as we've seen with all of the other severe weather setups that we have seen thus far. This particular setup will be highly dependent on how well moisture can recover across the risk area after tonight's overnight/tomorrow morning's convection clears out.


This Marginal Risk is primarily indicative of a low-end risk for damaging wind gusts up to 60 MPH. However, a non-zero, 2% Tornado risk does exist as well. There is no hail risk associated with this threat as these storms will likely be low-topped (i.e. are not tall enough to extend into the freezing levels of the atmosphere where hail develops).


The main threat time frame for severe storms will be from noon until 9pm EDT and the storm duration will be short-lived as the line moves through the area quickly. Persons in the risk area should stay #WeatherAware and stay tuned for additional updates.

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