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Still Watching A Severe Weather Risk For Tomorrow In West Michigan

We're still tracking a low-end severe weather risk for tomorrow. This risk now extends across all of the West Michigan Weather coverage area and across the entire Lower Peninsula of Michigan.

The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather across our area. This Marginal Risk is driven largely by a 5-14% risk for damaging winds, a 5-14% chance for large hail, and a tornado risk generally less than 2% across all of our coverage area with the exception of the far southeastern corner of Branch County where the tornado risk is at 2-4%.

A cold front is forecasted to move through the region in the afternoon and evening. Ahead of this slow-moving cold front, modest instability (storm energy juice) and rather strong wind shear (how winds change with speed and direction with height) will move into the area after morning rain showers move out of the region.

As the cold front moves into this somewhat favorable environment fueled by the aforementioned wind shear and instability additional showers and thunderstorms will develop and pose at least some risk for damaging winds of 40-60 MPH and small to large hail up to about 1 inch in diameter.

As with any severe risk that is accompanied of preceded by morning/pre-frontal rain showers, there is at least some degree of uncertainty about how well the environment will be able to recover after the rain clears and before the severe threat gets underway. This will need to be monitored and some forecast changes can be expected as we get additional details and gain more confidence in the forecasted environment in the region.

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