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Watching Severe Weather Potential In West Michigan Early Next Week

Summary:

We've been watching the potential for severe weather in West Michigan early next week for as much as a week now and today the SPC has begun to highlight that potential as well.


While we think severe weather is possible on several days in the early to middle parts of next week we'll be focusing on Tuesday 05/07 for this discussion as this is the only day that the NWS Storm Prediction Center is currently highlighting, though they do state that expansions of risk areas already in place for Monday and Wednesday, and that additional new risk areas could be needed for Thursday, so we'll continue to monitor these forecasts and provide updates as needed.


Tuesday 05/07/2024:

SPC Day 5 15% Risk of Severe Weather highlights portions of southwestern Berrien County in far southwest lower Michigan including the cities of New Buffalo, Three Oaks, Galien, Buchanan, New Troy, and Bertrand.
NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 5 Probabalistic Severe Weather Outlook - 15% "Slight" Risk (Level 1/2)

Beyond highlighting the risk for an "all-hazards" severe threat sometime on Tuesday afternoon and into the evening, and possibly overnight into Wednesday, it is too early to really be discussing timing, specific impacts, and severity of impacts. Our focus for this outlook needs to be on staying up-to-date with the latest forecasts leading up to Tuesday and, of course, we'll be providing updates each day as we continue to evaluate the threat for severe weather early next week.


Remember that a 15% Extended Range Severe Weather Outlook, like we see above - in place for Tuesday, typically will equate to a Day 1 Categorical Slight Risk (Level 2/5) though the potential is certainly there for it to be a higher risk, and even a lower risk if a relatively rarer case of severe potential lessening occurs.

SPC Severe Weather Outlook Levels. Demonstrates how a 15% extended range outlook will typically evolve to a Day 1 Slight Risk (Level 1/2)


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