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Slight Risk (Level 2/5) For Severe Weather This Afternoon! Damaging Winds, Isolated Tornado Possible!

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has upgraded eastern portions of western and southwestern lower Michigan to a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe weather this afternoon and into the evening hours.


NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Categorical Severe Weather Outlook (Slight Risk - 2/5) [Issued: 2:00 AM/6Z] for all of western and southwestern lower Michigan.
NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Categorical Severe Weather Outlook (Slight Risk - 2/5) [Issued: 2:00 AM/6Z]

The greatest risk for severe weather will be in the yellow-shaded Slight Risk from Noon - 8:00 PM EDT. A rapidly moving broken line of storms with the potential for embedded low-topped supercells will form to our southwest and will track through western lower Michigan very quickly later this afternoon from west to east as it rides a very strong mid-level wind jet.



While damaging wind gusts to 60 MPH appear to be the greatest threat thanks to the low topped/surface based storms thanks to only modest surface instability, it is certainly possible that a brief, weak spin-up style tornado or two could develop especially within any embedded supercells that can sustain a rotating updraft long enough.


We want to stress again what we stated in yesterdays forecast: This system has a lot of variables, as we've seen with all of the other severe weather setups that we have seen thus far. This particular setup will be highly dependent on how well moisture can recover across the risk area after this morning's rain showers clear out.


Michiganders in the risk areas should be prepared for the possibility of severe weather later this afternoon. Be #WeatherAware, have multiple ways to receive warnings, and stay tuned for future forecast updates!





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